No peeking at tomorrow
You decide at each day's close and earn the next day's move. Each trade costs 0.05%. Cash earns that day's 3-month Treasury bill rate, and S&P 500 positions earn dividends.
V(t+1) = V(t) · (1 + e·r_mkt + (1−e)·r_cash)
Real prices · Real crashes
The crash is coming.
Do you sell?
Replay a real market crash day by day with $10,000. Sell, hold or go all in. Can you beat the market?
Takes about 2 minutes. No sign-up.
S&P 500 · 2008
2009-03-09
−56.8%
Daily challenge
Today's secret crash
Everyone gets the same secret crash today. One shot. Dates stay hidden until the end.
Or pick a crash
1
Watch the market move one day at a time.
2
Tap Sell, Half or All in whenever you want.
3
See if you beat the market, a quant and luck.
How the scoring works
The quant you race
It follows two rules trend-following funds use: stay invested only above the 200-day average, and size the bet to target 15% volatility.
size = 1[P > SMA200] · min(1, 15% / σ20)
Skill or luck?
2,000 random traders make as many trades as you, on random days. Beat 95% of them and your timing is better than chance (a permutation test).
p ≈ share of random traders above you